The Theory That Would Not Die

If you're not thinking like a Bayesian, perhaps you should be. -John Allen Paulos, New York Times Book Review A masterfully researched tale of human struggle and accomplishment . . . Renders perplexing mathematical debates digestible and vivid for even the most lay of audiences. -Michael Washburn, Boston Globe [An] engrossing study. . . . Her book is a compelling and entertaining fusion of history, theory and biography. -Ian Critchley, Sunday Times An intellectual romp touching on, among other topics, military ingenuity, the origins of modern epidemiology, and the theological foundation of modern mathematics. -Michael Washburn, Boston Globe This account of how a once reviled theory, Baye's rule, came to underpin modern life is both approachable and engrossing. -Sunday Times Makes the theory come alive . . . enjoyable . . . densely packed and engaging . . . very accessible . . . an admirable job of giving a voice to the scores of famous and non-famous people and data who contributed, for good or for worse. -Significance Magazine A very compelling documented account . . . very interesting reading. -Jose Bernardo, Valencia List Blog McGrayne explains [it] beautifully. . . . Top holiday reading. -The Australian The Theory That Would Not Die is a rollicking tale of the triumph of a powerful mathematical tool. -Andrew Robinson, Nature The Theory That Would Not Die is the first popular science book to document the rocky story of Bayes's rule. At times, her tale has everything you would expect of a modern-day thriller. . . . To have crafted a page-turner out of the history of statistics is an impressive feat. If only lectures at university had been this racy. -David Robson, New Scientist McGrayne's The Theory That Would Not Die is the first popular science book to document the rocky story of Bayes's rule. . . . Her tale has everything you would expect of a modern-day thriller. Espionage, nuclear warfare and cold war paranoia all feature as she tracks the theory's crucial role in Alan Turing's code-breaking during the second world war, and the US navy's later use of the technique to track Soviet submarines. -New Scientist To have crafted a page-turner out of the history of statistics is an impressive feat. If only lectures at university had been this racy. -New Scientist The Theory That Would Not Die is an impressively researched, rollicking tale of the triumph of a powerful mathematical tool. -Andrew Robinson, Nature Vol. 475 McGrayne is such a good writer that she makes this obscure battle gripping for the general reader. -Engineering and Technology Magazine . . . scientists and statisticians have fought over a deep philosophical divide about probability, which Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores with great clarity and wit. -Christine Evans-Pughe, Engineering and Technology Magazine Editor's Choice, New York Times Book Review We now know how to think rationally about our uncertain world. This book describes in vivid prose, accessible to the lay person, the development of Bayes' rule over more than two hundred years from an idea to its widespread acceptance in practice. -Dennis Lindley, University College London A book simply highlighting the astonishing 200 year controversy over Bayesian analysis would have been highly welcome. This book does so much more, however, uncovering the almost secret role of Bayesian analysis in a stunning series of the most important developments of the twentieth century. What a revelation and what a delightful read! -James Berger, Arts & Sciences Professor of Statistics, Duke University, and member, National Academy of Sciences Well known in statistical circles, Bayes's Theorem was first given in a posthumous paper by the English clergyman Thomas Bayes in the mid-eighteenth century. McGrayne provides a fascinating account of the modern use of this result in matters as diverse as cryptography, assurance, the investigation of the connection between smoking and cancer, RAND, the identification of the author of certain papers in The Federalist, election forecasting and the search for a missing H-bomb. The general reader will enjoy her easy style and the way in which she has successfully illustrated the use of a result of prime importance in scientific work. -Andrew I. Dale, author of A History of Inverse Probability From Thomas Bayes to Karl Pearson and Most Honorable Remembrance: The Life and Work of Thomas Bayes Compelling, fast-paced reading full of lively characters and anecdotes . . . A great story. -Robert E. Kass, Carnegie Mellon University Fascinating . . . I truly admire [McGrayne's] style of writing, and . . . ability to turn complex mathematical ideas into intriguing stories, centered around real people. -Judea Pearl, winner of the 2012 Turing Award