The New Calculus of Escalation

Avoiding Armageddon in Great Power Conflict

Martin C. Libicki

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Paperback

Forthcoming
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English

Georgetown University Press
02 May 2025

Arms negotiation & control; Defence strategy, planning & research

A reevaluation of conflict thresholds in the context of complex cyber, conventional, and nuclear war

The return of great power competition has renewed concerns about managing escalation, lest a minor crisis inadvertently spiral into nuclear war. This has become apparent during the war between Russia and Ukraine, as Western aid for Ukraine has been predicated on avoiding Russian escalation.

The New Calculus of Escalation updates our understanding of conflict escalation dynamics for the twenty-first century with the goal of reducing the possibility of a catastrophic war. To improve mutual understanding among states, Libicki rethinks conflict thresholds and exit ramps that manage escalation. During the Cold War, there were two critical thresholds—one between peace and war, and one between conventional war and nuclear war. But ongoing developments in cyber and other advanced military technologies threaten command and control and blur the old thresholds.

Military strategists, international relations scholars, and graduate students will benefit from this book's cogent analytic framework in shaping future debates.

By: Martin C. Libicki
Imprint: Georgetown University Press
Country of Publication: United States
Dimensions: Height: 229mm, Width: 152mm,
ISBN: 9781647125769
ISBN 10: 1647125766
Pages: 248
Publication Date: 02 May 2025
Audience: Professional and scholarly , College/higher education , Undergraduate , Further / Higher Education
Format: Paperback
Publisher's Status: Forthcoming

Martin C. Libicki is the Maryellen and Richard L. Keyser Distinguished Visiting Professor in Cyber Security Studies at the US Naval Academy and an adjunct senior management scientist at the RAND Corporation. He is the author of Cyberspace in Peace and War (2021) and other works.