Introduction to Catastrophe Risk Modelling: A Physics-based Approach

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Arnaud Mignan (Mignan Risk Analytics Gmbh, Switzerland, and Institute of Risk Analysis, Prediction & Management (Risks-X), SUSTech, Shenzhen, China)

Introduction to Catastrophe Risk Modelling

A Physics-based Approach

Arnaud Mignan (Mignan Risk Analytics Gmbh, Switzerland, and Institute of Risk Analysis, Prediction & Management (Risks-X), SUSTech, Shenzhen, China)

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English

Cambridge University Press
21 November 2024

Econometrics; Economic statistics; Mathematical modelling; Earth sciences; Management of land & natural resources

Focusing on the physics of the catastrophe process and addressed directly to advanced students, this innovative textbook quantifies dozens of perils, both natural and man-made, and covers the latest developments in catastrophe modelling. Combining basic statistics, applied physics, natural and environmental sciences, civil engineering, and psychology, the text remains at an introductory level, focusing on fundamental concepts for a comprehensive understanding of catastrophe phenomenology and risk quantification. A broad spectrum of perils are covered, including geophysical, hydrological, meteorological, climatological, biological, extraterrestrial, technological and socio-economic, as well as events caused by domino effects and global warming. Following industry standards, the text provides the necessary tools to develop a CAT model from hazard to loss assessment. Online resources include a CAT risk model starter-kit and a CAT risk modelling 'sandbox' with Python Jupyter tutorial. Every process, described by equations, (pseudo)codes and illustrations, is fully reproducible, allowing students to solidify knowledge through practice.

By: Arnaud Mignan (Mignan Risk Analytics Gmbh Switzerland and Institute of Risk Analysis Prediction & Management (Risks-X) SUSTech Shenzhen China)
Imprint: Cambridge University Press
Country of Publication: United Kingdom
Dimensions: Height: 261mm, Width: 208mm, Spine: 22mm
Weight: 1.070kg
ISBN: 9781009437387
ISBN 10: 1009437380
Pages: 368
Publication Date: 21 November 2024
Audience: College/higher education , A / AS level , Further / Higher Education
Format: Hardback
Publisher's Status: Active

Foreword; Preface; Acronyms and Symbols; Part I. Basics of CAT Modelling: 1. Overview of catastrophe risks; 2. Probabilistic hazard assessment; 3. Probabilistic risk assessment; Part II. Advanced CAT Modelling: 4. Dynamic hazard modelling; 5. Modelling of cascading effects; Part III. CAT Risk Management: 6. CAT risk management; Reference; Index.

Arnaud Mignan is a renowned expert in catastrophe risk assessment, who has worked at leading firms and institutes in London, Zurich, and Shenzhen over the past two decades. He developed innovative models while at Risk Management Solutions and catastrophic domino-effect models – featured in a national newspaper and Euronews – while at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology. Later, as an associate professor at the Institute of Risk Analysis, Prediction and Management (Risks-X), established by the Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech) and a guest professor at the ETH Risk Center in Zurich, he crafted the course Introduction to Catastrophe Risk Modelling. Since 2023, he has been CEO of Mignan Risk Analytics GmbH and acts as a leading specialist for the World Bank.

Reviews for Introduction to Catastrophe Risk Modelling: A Physics-based Approach

'Professor Mignan has the benefit of substantial insurance industry experience to complement his academic achievements. This is a timely book, which incorporates the important lessons from the major disasters of recent years, and should be a valuable guide for students of catastrophe modelling.' Gordon Woo, Moody's/RMS 'This book is a definitive guide to catastrophe risk modelling, expertly covering all major perils and their interconnected cascade effects. Its remarkably clear pedagogical style, with numerous concrete examples and worked-out models, makes it an invaluable resource for understanding complex risks. It combines comprehensive insights with practical step-by-step instructions combining physical modelling, concrete engineering implementations and the relevant decision-making and financial economic dimensions. I took great pleasure in exploring its extraordinary rich content and I am sure that it will become the key reference for professionals, academics, and students.' Didier Sornette, Southern University of Science and Technology