Discourse on Social Planning under Uncertainty

Charles F. Manski (Northwestern University, Illinois)

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Hardback

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English

Cambridge University Press
09 January 2025

Macroeconomics; Econometrics; Economic statistics

Economists have long studied policy choice by social planners aiming to maximize population welfare. Whether performing theoretical studies or applied analyses, researchers have generally assumed that the planner knows enough about the choice environment to be able to determine an optimal action. However, the consequences of decisions are often highly uncertain. Discourse on Social Planning under Uncertainty addresses the failure of research to come to grips with this uncertainty. Combining research across three fields – welfare economics, decision theory, and econometrics – this impressive study offers a comprehensive treatment that fleshes out a 'worldview' and juxtaposes it with other viewpoints. Building on multiple case studies, ranging from medical treatment to climate policy, the book explains analytical methods and how to apply them, providing a foundation on which future interdisciplinary work can build.

By: Charles F. Manski (Northwestern University Illinois)
Imprint: Cambridge University Press
Country of Publication: United Kingdom
ISBN: 9781009556781
ISBN 10: 1009556789
Pages: 272
Publication Date: 09 January 2025
Audience: College/higher education , Further / Higher Education
Format: Hardback
Publisher's Status: Active

Preface; 1. Credible Planning Under Uncertainty; Part I. Characterizing Uncertainty; 2. Incredible Certitude; 3. Identification of Treatment Response; 4. Identification of Choice Behavior and Personal Welfare; Part II. Analyses of Planning Problems: 5. Diversified Treatment under Ambiguity; 6. Treatment with Data from Statistically Imprecise Trials; 7. Personalized Treatment; 8. Vaccination with Unknown Indirect Effects; 9. Climate Planning with Uncertainty in Climate Modeling and Intergenerational Discounting; 10. Looking Ahead.

Charles F. Manski is Board of Trustees Professor in the Department of Economics and Institute for Policy Research at Northwestern University. He is a Member of the National Academy of Sciences and a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the Econometric Society, the American Statistical Association, and the British Academy. His research spans econometrics, judgment and decision, and analysis of public policy.