Fooled by Randomness

The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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English

Random US
01 August 2005

Economics & Business; Economic statistics; Investment & securities

Series: Incerto

Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes.

Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth

sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim

Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite

raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a

modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill.

This

book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in

life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which

luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating

insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an

entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related

to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives.

The book is

populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way,

the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge

Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros;

and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand

the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious

foolishness.

However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the

lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the

“survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe

in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by

chance.

Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine

visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It

may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna,

but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.

Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time

A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year

By: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Imprint: Random US
Country of Publication: United States
Edition: 2nd Revised edition
Dimensions: Height: 203mm, Width: 131mm, Spine: 19mm
Weight: 261g
ISBN: 9780812975215
ISBN 10: 0812975219
Series: Incerto
Pages: 316
Publication Date: 01 August 2005
Audience: General/trade , College/higher education , ELT Advanced , A / AS level
Format: Paperback
Publisher's Status: Active

Reviews for Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

[Taleb is] Wall Street's principal dissident. . . . [Fooled By Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther's ninety-nine theses were to the Catholic Church. -Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker Fascinating . . . Taleb will grab you. -Peter L. Bernstein, author of Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk Recalls the best of scientist/essayists like Richard Dawkins . . . and Stephen Jay Gould. -Michael Schrage, author of Serious Play We need a book like this . . . fun to read, refreshingly independent-minded. -Robert J. Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance